Future Forecasting Reframe

You are convinced the upcoming thing will go badly, and it feels like a fact even though it has not happened yet. This examines the prediction: what past similar situations actually show, the real base rate for the thing going the way you fear, and the full range of plausible outcomes rather than just the worst one. For anyone whose brain has already written the disaster.

I am anticipating {UPCOMING_SITUATION} and I am convinced that {NEGATIVE_PREDICTION}. This feels certain to me even though it has not happened yet.

Help me examine this prediction. What evidence from similar past situations supports or contradicts this outcome? What is the base rate for this kind of thing actually going the way I fear? If I imagine the full range of plausible outcomes rather than just the worst one, what does that distribution look like? And if the thing I fear did happen, what resources or options would I actually have?