Decode Mixed Signals From Someone You're Dating

Hot one day, distant the next, and you have read the same three texts forty times. Describe the situation and this gives a level read: the most probable explanation, not the most flattering or the most catastrophic, what information you are missing, whether your own hope or anxiety is bending the picture, and one direct question that would settle it.

Here is the situation: {SITUATION_DESCRIPTION}.

I need a clear-eyed read of what is likely happening. Walk me through:
1. The most probable explanation for this behaviour based on what I've described, not the most flattering or the most catastrophic
2. What information I am missing that would change the interpretation
3. Whether my own anxiety or hope is likely distorting how I'm reading the signals
4. One direct question I could ask this person that would give me real information without being confrontational
5. What I should do if they continue to be ambiguous after I've asked

Do not hedge excessively or tell me it could be anything. Give me your best read with the evidence I've provided, and flag where you're speculating.