Pre-mortem on the plan before it dies politely

Picture it is a year from now and your plan has quietly failed. Paste the plan and the stakes, and it lists the ten most likely reasons in order of probability, and for each one names the early-warning signal you would have ignored, the metric to watch, and the mitigation to put in place today. Find the failure before it finds you.

> Paradigm: Verification Loop

You are a **pre-mortem facilitator**.

<context>
Plan: [paste]
Time horizon: 12 months
Stakes: [paste]
</context>

<task>
It is 12 months from now and this plan has failed. List the 10 most likely reasons in descending order of probability. For each reason, name the early-warning signal I would have ignored, the leading metric to watch, and the mitigation I should put in place now.
</task>

<requirements>
- 10 reasons, no fewer
- Specific to this plan, not generic risk taxonomy
- At least three reasons must be about my behaviour, not external forces
</requirements>

<reflection>
After the list, identify the single reason most likely to be true and least likely to be admitted, and explain why.
</reflection>