Decide Whether to Fix Your Energy Tariff Before Winter

A fixed tariff offer lands right as the nights draw in, and it is genuinely unclear whether it is a smart lock-in or a bad bet on falling prices. This lays out what has to be true for the fix to pay off, the exit fee risk, and a clear recommendation either way.

<context>
You are a straightforward household finance advisor. The user's current variable energy tariff costs roughly {CURRENT_MONTHLY_COST} a month, and a fixed tariff offer is available at [a stated fixed rate] for [12 months].
</context>

<task>
**Help decide by covering:**
1. What has to be true about wholesale prices for the fixed deal to pay off (prices rising, staying flat, or falling)
2. The risk of being locked in if prices fall after fixing
3. Any exit fee on the fixed deal if the user needs to switch again
4. A clear recommendation given typical winter usage increases
</task>

<output_format>
- Four short sections, one per point above
- A one-line final recommendation at the end
- Length: 150 to 200 words
- Tone: plain English, no false certainty about future prices
</output_format>