Explain Race Day Pacing Strategy for My Goal

You've trained hard and you don't want to wreck it by going out too fast in the first mile. Give it your distance, goal time, recent paces, the course profile and the forecast, and this explains a pacing plan: even versus negative split, and how to adjust for hills and weather so you finish near your target instead of crawling. The plan for the day itself.

<context>
I am running a [race distance] on [race date]. My goal finish time is [goal time] and my recent training paces are {TRAINING_PACES}. The course profile is [flat / hilly / mixed] and expected weather is [weather conditions].
</context>

<task>
**Explain a race day pacing strategy** that gives me the best chance of hitting my goal time. Cover even split vs negative split approaches and how to adjust for course and conditions.
</task>

<output_format>
- Recommended pacing approach with rationale
- Mile-by-mile or km-by-km pace band
- Effort cues for each race segment
- Warning signs I am going out too fast
- Contingency plan if I fall off pace
</output_format>