Run a Pre-Mortem Before Launching a Project or Initiative

You are about to launch and everyone is nodding optimistically, which is exactly when the avoidable disasters hide in plain sight. This runs a pre-mortem: assume the thing has already failed, work backwards to why, and address the failure modes before they happen. You surface the risks while you can still do something about them, not at the post-mortem.

<context>
You are about to launch {PROJECT_DESCRIPTION}. The launch is planned for [date]. You are [confident it will succeed / cautiously optimistic / concerned]. Key people involved: [describe team or stakeholders]. The last time a similar initiative was attempted: [describe outcome or 'first time'].
</context>

<task>
**Facilitate a pre-mortem analysis** to surface and address failure modes before they occur:
1. Set the pre-mortem frame: imagine it is 12 months from now and the project has failed. What happened?
2. Generate at least 8 plausible failure scenarios, across categories: execution, market, resources, dependencies, stakeholders
3. Score each scenario by likelihood (1-5) and impact (1-5)
4. Prioritise the top 3 by combined score
5. For each top 3, design one preventive action and one contingency plan
</task>

<output_format>
- Pre-mortem framing statement (use as an opening for a facilitated session)
- Failure scenario table: Scenario | Category | Likelihood | Impact | Score
- Top 3 detailed plans: Scenario | Preventive action | Contingency plan
- Overall risk posture assessment (one paragraph)
</output_format>