Pre-Mortem: Kill the Plan Before It Kills You

You've decided to go for it, which is exactly when blind spots hide. This runs a pre-mortem: assume it's a year on and the decision has failed badly, then it builds at least six vivid failure stories, optimistic assumptions that broke, external shocks, your own self-sabotage, and resource gaps. You spot the cracks while you can still patch them.

I have decided to {DECISION}. Before I commit, run a pre-mortem analysis with me. Assume it is {TIME_HORIZON} from now and this decision has failed badly. Your job is to help me imagine vividly how that failure unfolded. Generate at least six distinct failure narratives, covering: optimistic assumptions that proved wrong, external events that derailed the plan, personal behaviours that sabotaged it, and resource or timing miscalculations. For each narrative, rate its likelihood (low/medium/high) and suggest one mitigation or contingency I should build in now. End with a summary of the top three risks I should monitor.